After a stellar run that saw the frontline indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 - clock gains of around 21 per cent and 24 per cent respectively in calendar year 2021 (CY21), the year gone by in real sense belonged to the mid-and small-cap segments. Thus far in CY21, the mid-and small-cap indexes on the BSE have far outpaced the run in the frontline indices and notched up a gain of around 38 per cent and 61 per cent, respectively during this period. Though analysts expect the outperformance to continue in 2022, they caution against the multiple headwinds in the year ahead that may dent the overall market sentiment.
Hindustan Zinc (HZL), a subsidiary of Vedanta, announced an interim dividend of Rs 21 per share last week, resulting in an outflow of Rs 8,863 crore. The announcement has turned the spotlight on India Inc's dividend-paying policy - more so for reasons driving the generosity of firms. An analysis of BSE 500 companies by Business Standard Research Bureau shows that some of the top 20 dividend-paying companies in 2021-22 (FY22) include Vedanta, Tata Consultancy Services, HZL, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Indian Oil Corporation (IndianOil), Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Reliance Industries (RIL), and Bajaj Auto, among others.
Fundraising activity in the upcoming financial year 2022-23 may even surpass FY22 when 52 Indian companies raised a record Rs 1.11 trillion via initial public offerings (IPOs). According to a note by PRIME Database, 54 companies (including LIC) plan to raise Rs 1.4 trillion and currently hold the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) approval. Another 43 companies, the note said, are looking to raise about Rs 81,000 crore but waiting for Sebi nod.
Stocks of public sector companies, especially the oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs) - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) - logged gains on Tuesday in a weak market. While the Nifty lost nearly 1 per cent in trade on Tuesday, the Nifty CPSE index - a gauge of performance of central public sector enterprises on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) - gained over 3 per cent in intra-day trade. The rally in PSU stocks comes on the back of the BPCL chairman, Arun Kumar Singh suggesting in the company's annual general meeting (AGM) on Monday that the government intends to complete the divestment process in the OMC by March 2022.
Shares of small-cap companies have been on a roll with the S&P BSE Small-Cap index hitting a new high in intra-day deals on Thursday. The rally has been fueled by an up move in stocks of chemicals, cement, graphite electrode makers, pharmaceuticals and information technology (IT) shares. In the past two weeks, since March 25, the index has outperformed the market by gaining 7.3 per cent. In comparison, the S&P BSE Midcap index was up 6.1 per cent, while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 3.6 per cent during the same period.
Analysts caution against volatility and recommend buying stocks of companies that are on strong fundamental footing that have been beaten down badly in the recent carnage.
However, experts caution that investors should not expect the big returns they got from the sector between March and September 2020.
Consumer stocks remain the biggest laggard on the bourses. The Nify50 weighting of FMCG stocks declined to a decade low of 9.9 per cent at the end of March this year, down 150 basis points from 11.4 per cent a year ago. At their peak in March 2013, major FMCG stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and Asian Paints, together accounted for 15 per cent of the Nifty50. But now together with automobile stocks, the consumer goods sector accounts for only 14.7 per cent of the index, down 200 basis points in the past 12 months and 37 per cent from the record high weighting of 23.4 per cent at the end of March 2014.
The latest circular from BSE that sought to cap the price movement of select scrips, especially the mid-, small-cap segments, traded on the exchange is not without a reason. A quick calendar year-to-date price check on the stocks from the categories put under 'Add-on Price Band Framework' by the BSE reveals a total of 210 stocks have seen their market price more than double. Among individual stocks, SC Agrotech, Adinath Textiles, Waaree Renewable Technologies, Steel Strips Infrastructure, Unistar Multimedia, Texel Industries, Raja Bahadur International and Hindustan Everest Tools from the BSE's X and XT group have rallied over 500 per cent during this period. Topping the charts is Gita Renewable Energy, which has zoomed 3,964 per cent to Rs 272.35 now from Rs 6.7 as on December 31, 2020.
The S&P BSE Small-cap index has recovered 26 per cent as compared to a 23 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex.
'Most Indian logistics firms do not have the facility to store and transport COVID-19 vaccine right now.'
Financial services and consumer durable companies accounted for most of the selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in the last fortnight of February. FPIs sold finance stocks worth Rs 2,263 crore and consumer durable stocks worth Rs 1,111 crore, according to data collated by Prime Infobase. Information technology (selling worth Rs 708 crore), metals and mining (Rs 694 crore), and power (Rs 497 crore) were the other sectors where overseas funds sold shares.
The rally in mid- and small-cap stocks has spilled over into the IT sector as well. Second and third-tier IT stocks, which historically traded at a discount to the big five IT companies, are now trading at nearly 25 per cent premium to their large-cap peers. The smaller IT companies have a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of nearly 38 times against the big five's current P/E multiple of around 31x.
There is positive correlation between crude oil prices and Indian equities and investors can expect more upside after the recent rally in Brent crude price.
Portfolio returns, say analysts at Morgan Stanley, are more likely to be driven by bottom-up stock-picking rather than top-down macro forces.
At the 45th Annual General Meeting of Reliance Industries (RIL) in August, chairman and managing director (CMD) Mukesh Ambani described the company as an "unputdownable book" with never-ending chapters of success. "Reliance grew from strength to strength because we internalised the founder's mindset of purpose, philosophy and passion," he said. Wednesday marked the 90th birth anniversary of RIL founder Dhirubhai Ambani.
Despite near-term headwinds of rising input costs and the possibility of lower demand for products as Covid dented rural & urban India, and impacts both production & consumption, analysts remain bullish on stocks of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies and expect the index to relatively outperform its peers in the second half of fiscal 2021-22 (FY22). In the past one year, prices of key commodities such as groundnut oil, mustard oil, Vanaspati, soya oil, sunflower oil and palm oil have shot up in the range of 20 per cent to 60 per cent, data show. The FMCG sector macros in this backdrop, according to analysts, have further deteriorated because of weakness in consumer demand and likely margin pressure due to elevated crude oil, palm oil and global food prices.
Analysts attribute this withdrawal trend to the nervousness ahead of US presidential elections and the fact that the markets raced ahead even as the economic recovery remained fragile back home.
Smaller stocks continue to shine at the bourses. The BSE MidCap index is up 18 per cent since the beginning of January this year against a 5 per cent rise in the Sensex during the period. With the current rally, the mid-cap index has doubled in value since the end of March 2020 against a 70 per cent rally in the Sensex during the period. On Tuesday, the mid-cap index closed at 21,232, as compared to 17,941 at the end of December 2020. In the same period, the benchmark index moved from 47,751 to 50,193.
While sales momentum from rural areas may last another three to six months, sales growth in urban areas could stage a comeback by next year's June quarter as people learn to live with the coronavirus and economic activity gradually improves in the cities.
The divestment process, however, will not be an easy affair as there are multiple stakeholders, including the employee unions, whose concerns will have to be addressed.
This year, the combined net profit of 24 index companies, which have declared their June-20 numbers, has declined by 37 per cent year on year, while their revenues, including other income, is down by 21 per cent YoY so far.
The combined profit before tax of 748 companies, which have declared their results for Q1FY21, is down 46 per cent YoY. Their net sales went down by a quarter as the Covid-19 lockdown led to a sharp fall in economic activity.
While a little more than 140 penny stocks have doubled in value, 555 have given negative returns in the past year. Of these, 84 shed more than half their value.
It has Rs 20,500 crore of standard stressed pool outstanding as of June 2018. Thus, the entire stressed book (net NPAs and standard stressed pool) is nearly two times its net worth.
Analysts expect firms to shift focus to online platforms to boost sales in these Covid-19-impacted times.
Jio Financial Services, a unit of Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries (RIL), got valued at Rs 1.66 trillion ($20 billion) following an hour-long special trading session conducted by stock exchanges on Thursday. Shares of RIL's unit got priced at Rs 261.85 apiece - higher than analysts' expectations of Rs 134-224 per share. The price was arrived at after calculating the difference between RIL's Wednesday (July 19) close of Rs 2,840 and Rs 2,580, the price discovered during the first-of-its-kind pre-trade session.
Stocks of public sector undertakings (PSUs) have been on fire in the past year as investors cheered an improvement in key operating metrics and embraced counters of these state-owned enterprises, analysts suggest. The S&P BSE PSU Index has gained over 90 per cent in the past year, rising much higher than the S&P BSE Sensex, which has rose nearly 19 per cent during this period, according to ACE Equity data. The BSE PSU Index, reports show, has delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28 per cent (including dividends reinvestments) over five years and risen by almost 60 per cent in the past year.
Auto companies are now grappling with a slowdown in sales, triggered by pent up demand due to the COVID-led lockdown easing a bit and supply-side issues for raw material.
Analysts, however, suggest investors remain selective on realty stocks and buy only where there is revenue visibility and a credible promoter backing.
As many as 267 of 453 companies from the BSE500 index are trading above their consensus price targets, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. Not all companies in the BSE500 index are tracked by analysts.
This is first time in 25 years that a benchmark equity index in India is trading at a P/E multiple of 40x or higher.
HDFC and HDFC Bank's merger - touted as India's biggest-ever corporate merger - pumped up shares of the two entities on the bourses. Shares of Housing Finance Development Corporation (HDFC) skyrocketed 9 per cent while those of HDFC Bank zoomed 10 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSESensex and the Nifty50 indices settled 2.2 per cent higher on Monday.
The trend in corporate earnings suggests that index earnings could fall to the levels last seen in early 2014.
sharper-than-expected economic recovery back home, analysts say, can fuel a further rally in domestic cyclicals, industrials, and financials as global central banks continue with their easy money policy.
Analysts attribute the surge to a host of factors, particularly the interest shown by the retail investors in these two market segments.
The buyback price is at around 28 per cent premium to the current market price of Rs 67 on the Bombay Stock Exchange
The surge in IT, auto and FMCG stocks were led by investors seeking safety against market volatility.
The proposal to increase public float, hike income tax surcharge, move to tax share buybacks and lack of stimulus to shore up economic growth has hurt investor sentiment.
BSE-listed companies' market capitalisation reached Rs 197.7 trillion on January 21, against India's nominal GDP of Rs 190 trillion during 12 months ended December 2020.
